According to research of the Taipei-based Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC) conducted as part of the ITIS project, worldwide mobile phone subscriber CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) in the period 2008-2013 is expected to be 6.5%. In 2013, the worldwide mobile phone subscriber base is forecast to reach 5.28 billion, with the worldwide mobile phone subscriber penetration rate jumping from 57.3% in 2008 to 74.3% in 2013.

Between 2006 and 2008, mobile phone subscriber markets in many developed markets approached saturation. Emerging markets, including China, India, Indonesia, Latin America, and several African countries became the growth engine. The worldwide mobile phone subscriber base enjoyed double-digit growth rates during this period.

In 2009, mobile operators are expected to aggressively deploy networks in emerging markets and try to increase subscribers in rural areas. Even though mobile operators may try to boost new subscriber additions with low-price terminals and new value-added services, they may encounter problems, such as the fact that households in some emerging markets have relatively low incomes and do not have much money to spend on mobile phones. As a result, following rapid global mobile phone subscriber growth in the period 2006-2008, growth momentum is expected to slow down in 2009.

Although emerging markets will continue to lead global subscriber growth between 2008 and 2010, it is anticipated that the global subscriber growth will slow significantly. Due to the effects of the global financial turmoil, the economic performance of developed countries was affected in 2008, with the effects of the economic downturn extending into 2009. Growth, which before the economic downturn was expected to occur in 2009, will only emerge in 2010 and 2011.

As of year-end 2008, the global population hit 6.5 billion, while the worldwide mobile phone subscriber base reached approximately 3.84 billion. It is expected that worldwide mobile phone penetration rate will break the 60% mark in 2009. Meanwhile, continuing improvements in mobile broadband networks, along with the emergence of new products and technologies such as data cards and embedded mobile phone modules, are expected to benefit mature markets in terms of mobile phone subscriber growth.

Looking at the worldwide mobile phone subscriber share by system technology, analog systems will be gradually phased out between 2008 and 2009. AT&T announced the termination of TDMA (Time Division Multiple Access) networks in February 2008 and migration of TDMA system subscribers to GSM/WCDMA (Global System for Mobile Communications/Wideband Code Division Multiple Access) system. The TDMA system is set to be shut down completely in 2010. Additionally, Softbank plans to terminate its PDC (Personal Digital Cellular) system in March 2010. Analog, TDMA, and PDC systems will thus be terminated by 2010 and replaced by GSM/WCDMA and CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access) systems.

As of the beginning of October 2008, there were 248 WCDMA, 223 HSDPA (High Speed Downlink Packet Access), and 57 HSUPA (High Speed Uplink Packet Access) commercial networks being deployed worldwide. Meanwhile, as the transition from WCDMA to HSDPA only requires a software upgrade, HDSPA is expected to become a mainstream technology.

Furthermore, several countries, including Australia, Estonia, Finland, France, Indonesia, New Zealand, and Switzerland, began rolling out commercial WCDMA/HSPA (High Speed Packet Access) services using the 900Mhz spectrum. Consequently, the fast expansion of WCDMA/HSPA networks has indirectly affected GSM/GPRS/EDGE subscriber additions.

It is forecast that the WCDMA/HSPA subscriber base's share of the total global mobile phone subscriber base will increase to 29.1% in 2013, up from 8.2% in 2008. Meanwhile, as mobile operators have begun accelerating the switchover from 2G to 3G, the GSM/GPRS/EDGE subscriber share is forecast to slip to 56.6% in 2013, down from 78.5% in 2008.

Driven by a large-scale global rollout of 3G systems and services, the WCDMA/HSPA subscriber base reached 315.0 million in 2008. The CDMA/EV-DO subscriber base, however, only arrived at 132.9 million in 2008. It is forecast that CDMA's share of total mobile phone subscribers will only reach 11.4% in 2013. The number of new EV-DO subscribers is yet to compensate for the loss in CDMA One/CDMA 1x subscribers.

More information can be found in the following MIC report: Worldwide Mobile Phone Subscriber Forecast, 2009 - 2013

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About MIC

Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC), based in Taipei, Taiwan, was founded in 1987. MIC is Taiwan's premier IT industry research and consulting firm providing intelligence, in-depth analysis, and strategic consulting services on global IT product and technology trends, focusing on markets and industries in Asia-Pacific. MIC is part of the Institute for Information Industry. https://mic.iii.org.tw/english

About ITIS

The ITIS (Industry and Technology Intelligence Services) project is managed by the Department of Industrial Technology of Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs. As part of the project, research is conducted in a variety of fields, including the ICT sector. The project serves both the public and private sector.